With the growing number of contamination by the coronavirus, the State of São Paulo has more than 80,000 cases of COVID-19, in 505 municipalities, not to mention that the demand for hospital beds already exceeds 70% of the total capacity available in the region, according to data. of the Government Portal released on May 23.
In order to predict when the peak of the pandemic would be, not only in São Paulo, but in several countries, Aerothermal Solutions created a mathematical model [figure 1] that went much further, capable of determining the period between a person being infected and recovering, estimate the number of infirmary and ICU beds that will be used each day in the disease treatment network, as well as predict the number of deaths and new contaminations.
The IPT Tool in collaboration with ATS
The methodology was so well developed that the Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT) incorporated it into the tool designed to meet the request of the São Paulo State Secretariat for Economic Development (SDE) for a way to prevent the collapse of the health and explain the curve of confirmed cases and deaths caused by the new coronavirus, as shown in the chart below:
Based on the combination of information provided by official sources, such as DATASUS, Censo Covid19, Brasil.io and SRAGHOSPITALIZADO, this mechanism includes predictive data on infected, recovered, deaths, beds used and ventilators required by municipality.
To be as assertive as possible, the tool makes forecasts of up to 15 days and has the option of filtering information by Regional Health Department (DRS) and by Municipality, helping the Government to know what measures are necessary for the demand per treatment does not exceed hospital capacity.
The instrument also provides a calculator, through which hospitals inform the supply of the number of ICU beds available or the forecast of the number of hospitalizations in the month, and the instrument presents what will be the demand for ventilators and the hospitalization capacity in the coming months. 30 days.
The IPT tool can be accessed at http://ec2-13-56-240-173.us-west-1.compute.amazonaws.com:3838/sample-apps/Covid19/
Perspective on the evolution of the disease
The model estimates that, among the DRSs, the ones with the most critical situation in terms of ICU beds are Greater São Paulo, Baixada Santista, Bauru and Presidente Prudente, which could soon collapse if the contamination curve does not show signs of deterioration. stagnation and reduction.
To make matters worse, the perspective of numbers for the State is also not very optimistic. The tool calculates that the number of confirmed cases should continue to increase in the coming days, reaching 161,528 infected and 11,341 deaths caused by COVID-19 on June 6th.
On the same date, it will be necessary to use 6,900 infirmary beds, 3,943 ICU beds, 2,119 invasive ventilators and 4,416 non-invasive ventilators, thus reaching the mark of almost 80% of all hospital availability for the treatment of the disease in the first days. of June.
For this situation to be reversed, it is necessary for the population to become aware and follow the WHO guidelines on the correct use of masks, use of 70% alcohol, hygiene of purchases and home seclusion, if possible. This prevents the spread of the virus and, consequently, the contamination of other people.
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